we are lituret
Applying Lipstick to the Hog [Eurodollar University, Ep. 164]
A review of September 2021's Treasury International Capital report strongly suggests not enough money in the global economy. The results of China's Sixth Plenum shows Beijing knows it. Also, why M * V ≠ P * Q, or anything other than confusion.
Next Fed Chair to be Lexicographer [Eurodollar University, Ep. 157]
Prices are surging, the US Treasury market condition is best described as "landmine" and so the Federal Reserve rides to the rescue with its thesaurus.
The Bonds, the Inflation and the CPI [Eurodollar University, Ep. 150]
It's a Mexican standoff between bonds, inflation and consumer prices. We review the 1950s, 60s, 70s, 2000s and 10s for insight into how the shootout will resolve. Also, the PBOC is reporting a rise in "Foreign Assets: Other" - that's bad news... for everyone.
The 2s/10s Treasury Spread ‘Conundrum’ [Ep. 136, Eurodollar University]
The US Treasury curve celebrated the 2020-21 global reopening by steepening the spread between the 2- and 10-year yields. But there's no party being thrown for the Fed taper or recent stock market rally.
Safest Bank Balance Sheets in Three Generations [Ep. 129, Eurodollar University]
The first half of 2021 witnessed US banks abandoning real-economy loans while they barricaded themselves behind a fortress of safe assets.
The Volcker Myth [Ep. 122, Eurodollar University]
The US dollar is outgaining all (except one). Also, how to reconcile that metals are losing value as energy gains. Also, explaining why 1970s stagflation is improbable. Lastly, Paul "Inflation Slayer" Volcker - a myth?
Bonds, Treasury Bonds [Ep. 115]
US Treasury Bonds lose value each autumn - why? Also, seven monetary-collateral warning signs to watch out for during the debt ceiling drama.
Labor Shortage - The Fed’s ‘Get Out of Jail Free’ Card [Ep. 99]
Labor force participation versus unemployment. Also, labor shortages - are they what we're told? Lastly, the US dollar continues to gain value - a bad sign for the global economy.
Wisdom of the Crowds [Ep. 98]
We cover three topics this week. Firstly, America's labor shortage (does it exist?). Secondly, a NBC News Poll Shows Economic Wisdom of the Crowds. And lastly, a lightning round review of AUD, CNY, Au/Ag, RRP, ECB, NG1, BoE and QE.
The dogs bark, but the caravan goes on... [Ep. 96]
"The dogs bark, but the caravan goes on..." is a phrase that captures perfectly the recent taper talk by governors and presidents of the Federal Reserve. "Recovery!" woof woof. "Robust!" bark bark. But the caravan? It cannot move on, in fact it is clearer with every passing week that the global economy as Bedouin camel train is entering quicksand.
[Ep. 94c] American's Income MUCH LESS than Assumed
"This might be one of the biggest downward revisions I have ever observed," says Jeff Snider. The benchmark revision to Real Personal Income ERASED billions of dollars in presumed earnings from US workers since 2015, and especially in 2020 to 2021. "Truly stunning."